We’ve all heard it. Buyers are sitting on the sidelines, arms crossed, waiting for mortgage rates to drop like it’s some sort of halftime show. But what number would actually get them moving?

According to the latest forecast from the National Association of REALTORS®, it’s 6 percent. If rates dip to that level, about 5.5 million more households would suddenly find homeownership within reach. That includes 1.6 million renters who’d finally have a shot at buying a home. Out of those 5.5 million, about 550,000 could actually pull the trigger within the next year or so.

That’s not just market noise. That’s movement.

The Forecast Heard Round the Country

At NAR’s July 16 Real Estate Forecast Summit, economists rolled out a brand-new Metro Market Statistics Dashboard that tracks housing data across 200 metro areas. The takeaway? Cities like Atlanta, Dallas, Minneapolis, Cleveland, and Kansas City could see some of the biggest sales gains if rates hit 6 percent.

And while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is still hovering near 6.7 percent, all signs point to relief ahead. NAR economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut its short-term benchmark rate several times over the next 12 to 18 months. If that happens, mortgage rates could gradually ease down to 6 percent by 2026.

That would be a game-changer. NAR is projecting a 14 percent jump in home sales if we get there.

Should Buyers Keep Waiting?

This is where it gets interesting. While buyers are waiting for rates to drop, inventory is quietly rising. In fact, the number of existing homes on the market jumped 20 percent in May compared to the same time last year. Some markets have seen inventory grow by 80 percent.

More inventory means more options, more negotiating power, and more motivated sellers. Price growth has also cooled way down. NAR expects home prices to rise just 1 percent in 2025 before picking up to 4 percent in 2026.

Waiting might get you a better rate, sure. But it could also mean missing out on lower prices, better terms, and today’s inventory gains.

Quick Forecast Snapshot

Here’s NAR’s outlook for the next two years:

Existing-home sales
2025: +3 percent
2026: +14 percent

New-home sales
2025: +5 percent
2026: +5 percent

Median home prices
2025: +1 percent
2026: +4 percent

Mortgage rates
2025: 6.7 percent
2026: 6 percent

Jobs added
2025: 1.6 million
2026: 2 million

Growth Hotspots You Should Know About

The South is still leading the pack, with nearly 1.8 million new residents in 2024 alone. Florida, Texas, South Carolina, and North Carolina are growing rapidly. But don’t sleep on the Midwest. Des Moines, Indianapolis, and Omaha are showing real strength, with job growth and increased demand for purchase loans.

More Fed rate cuts this year could keep the momentum going, not just in the South, but in emerging markets across the country.

First-Time Buyers Are Coming Back

After hitting a historic low of 24 percent last year, first-time buyers are starting to reappear. In May, they accounted for 30 percent of home purchases. Why? Rates have leveled off, and more homes are on the market.

Here’s how to help them get moving:

• Educate them about low down payment options like FHA loans or assistance programs

• Remind them that they don’t need 20 percent down. The average is more like 9 percent

• Point out that more inventory equals more opportunity

Cash is Still King

All-cash buyers are still flexing. They now make up more than 25 percent of the market. Many are baby boomers using equity from previous sales to downsize or relocate. Interestingly, even 1 in 10 first-time buyers are now buying homes with all cash. They're pulling from savings, gifts, investments, and inheritance.

If you're working with equity-rich homeowners, this is the time to help them understand what their net worth really looks like. Some metro areas, like Phoenix, have seen average equity gains of over $320,000 in just 10 years. Renters aren’t seeing that kind of growth, which is exactly why getting into homeownership now still makes financial sense.

Bottom Line

If mortgage rates drop to 6 percent, we’re looking at a serious uptick in buyer activity. But even at today’s rates, the smart money sees opportunity. Inventory is up. Sellers are more flexible. Price growth has slowed. And first-time buyers are slowly getting back into the game.

Now is the time to get in front of renters, fence-sitters, and homeowners sitting on equity. Whether rates fall faster or take their time, the next shift is coming.