The latest home sales numbers might not make you want to pop champagne just yet, but there’s definitely a reason to keep the glasses nearby. The National Association of REALTORS®’ Pending Home Sales Index — the crystal ball of real estate stats — didn’t budge in September compared to August. Flat growth, sure, but it held steady at the second-strongest pace of the entire year. In this market, that’s what we call a win.
Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, summed it up best: buyers are showing signs of life, and confidence is quietly making a comeback.
Reading Between the Numbers
While “no change” might sound like snooze-worthy news, economists are seeing momentum beneath the surface. Pending sales were down less than 1% year-over-year, and the latest existing-home sales data actually showed a 4.1% annual increase. The biggest contract boosts came from the Northeast (up 3.1%) and the South (up 1.1%) — yes, that includes sunny Florida — which could mean stronger sales ahead.
Of course, Yun adds a reality check: we’re not back to a fully healthy market just yet. A softer job market is tugging against the progress, but even that hasn’t stopped motivated buyers from reappearing.
Buyers Are Back — Slowly but Surely
Mortgage applications are up 20% compared to last year. First-time buyers? They now make up 30% of sales, a nice jump from 26% a year ago. That’s a clear sign that people are dipping their toes back into the market waters.
And who can blame them? Mortgage rates have finally stopped their skydiving act and landed at 6.19% — their lowest level in more than a year, according to Freddie Mac. Considering rates were sitting above 7% earlier this year, that’s a major relief for buyers’ wallets.
In fact, a LendingTree study found that the rate drops between January and July saved buyers roughly $40,000 over the life of a 30-year mortgage. That’s a whole new kitchen renovation… or maybe just a lifetime coffee supply to survive the home-buying process.
So, What’s Everyone Waiting For?
Apparently, even lower rates. A CNBC survey found that 72% of real estate agents say their clients are waiting for mortgage rates to fall further. But experts like LendingTree’s Matt Schulz say it might be time for those fence-sitters to check in with their lender. The current rate cuts could already mean real savings right now.
The Silver Lining: More Choices
While home prices are still inching up about 2% annually, inventory has finally climbed to a five-year high. Translation: buyers actually have options again — and a little leverage to negotiate.
Yun predicts that mortgage rates could trend toward three-year lows, which could further boost affordability heading into 2026. The only potential hiccup? The ongoing government shutdown could temporarily slow things down. But let’s face it — this market has proven it’s got more bounce than a beach ball in a hurricane.
