If you’ve been crossing your fingers for a return to some kind of normal in the housing market, 2025 might finally be delivering—sort of. Builders are balancing new home and rental construction closer to historic norms, which should be good news for both housing supply and pricing.
But before you start packing boxes and Googling “best moving companies near me,” let’s just say: there are still a few plot twists ahead.
📈 More Homes, But Still Not Enough
According to JPMorgan, new homes for sale have hit 481,000—the most since 2007. And speculative homes (the “if you build it, they will buy” kind) are at 385,000—highest since 2008. That’s 50% and 40% above the norm, respectively.
Single-family inventory is up 20% year-over-year, but it’s still hovering near record lows. Think “better than nothing” — not exactly an open house extravaganza.
🧩 Why the Shortage? Pull Up a Chair…
New home construction may be picking up, but interest rates are still playing the role of “bad guy.” Rents have cooled (a rare bit of good news!), causing multifamily construction to slow. And many homeowners are locked into mortgages with rates so low they practically stole them—so they’re staying put and not listing.
🏦 Meanwhile, in Fed Land…
The Fed’s fight against inflation means higher borrowing rates for banks, which trickles down into pricier mortgages. As of now, the average 30-year fixed is 6.65%, per Freddie Mac—down a smidge from 6.79% last year.
But remember: that’s for people with 20% down and dreamy credit scores. If your finances are less “Wall Street” and more “Main Street,” expect a rate that bites a bit harder.
🏛️ Freddie, Fannie & The Great Mortgage Machine
When banks make qualifying loans, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy them, package them into mortgage-backed securities, and send the cash back to banks so they can lend again. It’s like a financial recycling program, but less green and more red tape.
When things go south (read: too many defaults), these GSEs tighten up requirements—meaning you’ll need more income, better credit, and a heftier down payment to play.
📉 Mortgage Rates: Not Great, But Not 1981 Either
Long-term average? 7.33%. Worst ever? A teeth-grinding 16.64% in 1981. Best? A dreamy 2.96% in 2021. Today’s 6.65% isn’t horrible—but with high home prices and low inventory, affordability is still a myth for many.
🔮 The Outlook: Murky With a Chance of Bargains?
According to Forbes, tariffs could cause a slowdown later this year, keeping rates high-ish. But here’s the bright spot: inventory is finally growing. Realtor.com says active listings are up 29.2% year-over-year, and we’re 72 weeks deep into an upward trend.
In Sarasota, I’ve seen this firsthand—more listings are popping up from Lakewood Ranch to Siesta Key. That means more options, more wiggle room, and (hopefully) fewer bidding wars.
💸 Prices Are Stubborn… But Starting to Blink
Prices per square foot are up 1.3% nationally, and sellers are starting to blink: price reductions are up 17%. Many are realizing buyers aren’t biting at 2022 prices. In Sarasota, we’re seeing price drops in pockets of Palmer Ranch, Southgate, and even downtown condos.
More days on market = more negotiation power for you.
🔍 Sales Snapshot
Pending home sales are up 2% from January to February, but still down year-over-year. Realtor.com says 2024 was the weakest year for home sales since 1995. Builders aren’t rushing in to save the day either—housing starts, permits, and completions are all down.
😬 Consumer Confidence Is… Let’s Call It “Shaky”
Thanks to market chaos, federal job shifts, and economic uncertainty, consumer spending is down. Economists expect a mild GDP slowdown in early 2025—meaning the housing market might stay weird a little longer.
📆 So When’s the Best Time to Buy?
NAR forecasts 6.4% average rates in 2025, and 6.1% in 2026. Home prices? Expected to rise 3% this year and 6.1% next. Translation: if you're waiting for a big crash, you might be waiting a very long time.
With more homes hitting the market and sellers adjusting expectations, Q3 of 2025 could be your window to buy—especially in Sarasota, where inventory is finally giving buyers some breathing room.
👋 Ready to Navigate the Market Like a Pro?
Whether you’re buying your first home, downsizing in Sarasota, or trying to snag a second property in Lakewood Ranch—We've got you covered.
👉 Let’s chat about your goals, your budget, and what neighborhoods might offer the best deals in Q3 2025.
📍 Local, knowledgeable, and always brutally honest—because you deserve more than just Zillow alerts.
